Sunday, April 08, 2007

Where to next Ukraine

Anyone who's been paying attention to this next emerging star will know that the country is undergoing the fits and starts of any new democracy. While the headlines talk of poltical upheaval, business has never been better and for all of the social ills and fears of backsliding into the Russian yolk, Ukraine remains one of my top picks for foreign investment.

If you're an American you're probably a bit behind the 8 ball. By now, the Germans, Poles and French have beaten you to the truly prime deals. But there are many more opportunities to be had in this verdant, mysterious European country. If you liked what happended in Poland and Romania get set for a repeat in Ukraine. The only obstacle to success are the Ukrainians themselves with their centralized thinking inherited from the Russians and the myriad paperwork required to do business here.

You'll need a good, trustworthy Ukrainian partner to help navigate these waters. It is possible, especially in the western region of the country where Germans are paying skilled workers a fraction of the wages they'd pay in Poland or Czech Republic. And Ukrainians are eager to have stable jobs - that is what they truly wish for since entrepreneurship is not part of their historical point of reference. This is a good place to set up an R&D center since there are so many scientists. It was at Kharkiv State University where the Soviet space program was developed so you can count on a great scientific workforce. And agriculture - let me tell you first hand that there are vast tracts of arable land waiting to be developed - just be sure to bring your cooling sheds and drying/packaging equipment with you or sell this stuff to the Ukrainians - they will put it to good use.

I was really blown away by a recent visit to Dniperpetrovsk. This region is loaded with steel mills. The Japanese and Koreans are all over the place. I thought about recycling the shuttered factories and shipping them to China. There are literally kilometer after kilometer of abandoned factories and warehouses made of brick and steel for as long as the eye can see and trust me - its all for sale, real cheap.

So what does this all mean to you and me, the foreign investor? This means early market entry to Europe's next great economic success story. With 50 million people and a young educated workforce you've got the right underpinnings for long term success. Agricutlure is a no brainer but did you think about tourism? This place has medieval castles that look like movie sets. They have a balmy beautiful Crimea to the south and the very picturesque, Hapsburgian city of Lviv (Lemburg) to the west. I bet you didn't know they are also the top wine exporter to Russia. The wineries in Crimea are fantastic!

This is just a preview of one of the last great deals in Europe - count on Moldova and the Caucuses to be next on the list.

In my country Kazakhstan

Beyond the Borat references there IS a country called Kazakhstan and it IS a redhot emerging market economy not to be missed. Since its sudden and involuntary independence from Russia and the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan is rapidly exploiting its massive Tengiz oil reserves. Top US firms like Chevron and Proctor & Gamble have been mopping up here for years thanks to the free flow of oil to Europe and China. The influx of cash has Kazakhs giddy on spending.

Kazakhs are a status oriented culture interested in luxury brands and embrace consumerism with abandon. On a recent visit, I was hard pressed to find any old Ladas on the streets. I mostly saw late model Mercedes which one can readily purchase at the dealer just outside of the airport. And good luck finding a seat at the lunch table, Kazakhs love to eat out and enjoy themselves.

Having been in and out of Kazakhstan for over twelve years I've seen this place go from chaos and confusion to really becoming one of the countries of the future. Just head to the new capital city Astana and compare it to Dubai. It's truly remarkable. Sectors to watch include Kazakh investments in technology, telecommunications, healthcare, beauty products, consumer goods, medical equipment and tourism development. Why tourism? This country has some of the most magnificent mountain ranges in the world - the Tian Shan and will host the Asian Games in 2011. Translation - the Japanese and other wealthy Asians will now know Switzerland is in their backyard, not in Europe. Radisson and other top US firms have discovered the upside and so should you.

Stay tuned for more updates.

Romania - time to invest




What usually comes to mind when someone mentions Romania is Vampires, Dracula or that crazy dictator who's name no one can remember. Ask Bill Gates about Romania and he'll tell you about the vibrant tech capabilities Romanians possess and the fact that they make up a large part of the Microsoft workforce.

After years of local government investment into math and science programs and a strong English language emphasis, Romanians are well equipped to hammer out code and provide excellent and affordable backoffice support for today's businesses. Why stop there? Romania is also a leader in software development in its own right. Microsoft recently purchased Romanian anti-virus software maker GeCAD.



I have worked with other Romanian software companies - most of them great investment picks with lots of upside. For example, there's a company that develops e-tax software for city governments and another that helps counties to distribute social security payments electronically. Another great example is a software company called InforWorld that developed a full service medical software suite that includes state-of-the-art radiology images online. And there are hundreds more out there offering many innovations that will likely be picked up by well known western brands.

Romania is now a member of the European Union. The country is harmonizing its laws to be in compliance with Brussels thus creating greater transparency. Property is still great value and the location is terrific. The other great upside in Romania is the affordability. You can have a European office at a fraction it would cost in France or Germany.